US Services PMI Hits 9-Month Low, Continuing Jobless Claims Rise

The U.S. ISM Services PMI dropped sharply to 50.8 in March 2025 from 53.5 in February. Although the reading remains above the 50-point threshold that signals expansion, it marks the slowest pace of growth in the services sector in the past nine months.

(US ISM Service PMI; Source: ISM)

(US Continuing Jobless Claim; Source: US Department of Labor)

On the labor front, continuing jobless claims rose to a post-pandemic high of 1,900,000 in the week ending March 22, 2025. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims came in at 219,000 for the week ending March 29.

Initial Signs of Tariff Impact?

The recent slowdown in economic activity, coupled with mounting pressure on the labor market, has raised concerns about the potential impact of Trump’s newly announced tariff policy on the broader U.S. economy.

According to the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, there was a notable increase this month in the number of respondents reporting higher purchasing costs as a direct result of the new tariffs.

While the full impact of the tariffs is still unclear, the recent weak economic data may be an early sign that the tariffs are starting to raise business costs and push up consumer prices.

Market Eyes on U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

All eyes are now on the U.S. non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data for March, set to be released later today.

Investors are eager to see how the U.S. economy—especially the labor market—is holding up. While the full set of tariffs is yet to take effect in April, if the March jobs report continues to show signs of slowdown, it could raise serious concerns and potentially mark the beginning of a deeper economic downturn.

Technical Outlook: U.S. Dollar Hits 7-Month Low

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) extended its decline to a 7-month low, as mounting concerns over the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs weighed heavily on sentiment.

(US Dollar Index, USDX, Day-chart; Source: Ultima Markets MT4)

From a technical perspective, DXY is now losing ground around the 102.00 level, marking its lowest point since October 2024. If more weak economic data emerges, the dollar could retest the key psychological support at 100.00.

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