Focus on GBPUSD today – 13th March 2024

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the GBPUSD for 13th March 2024.

Key Takeaways

• Unexpected rebound in US CPI: Yesterday, the monthly and annual rates of core CPI announced by the US were higher than expected, but the annual rate of core CPI fell to a two-year and a half low. The expectation of interest rate cuts remains questionable, and the market is currently concerned that the Federal Reserve’s expected three rate cuts next week will be reduced by one.
• Bailey’s speech: Bank of England Governor Bailey’s latest statement early this morning stated that long-term inflation expectations have not changed much, and concerns about the effects of the second round of inflation have eased. The market currently expects the Bank of England to start cutting interest rates in August. Focus on whether the UK’s GDP economy will be tested today.

Technical Analysis

Daily Chart Insights

• Stochastic Oscillator:The indicator sent a downward signal in the overbought area yesterday, suggesting that short-term forces have the upper hand. However, we need to wait for the exchange rate to fall further below yesterday’s low before focusing on short selling opportunities.
• Support level: The combination of upward channel line and downward trend line forms the supporting price level, hindering further decline of the exchange rate. At the same time, the downward trend line is also near the blue 33 day moving average, so if the exchange rate falls below this level, the pound may experience a depreciation trend.

1-hour Chart Analysis

• Moving average support: The short-term moving average group and the green 240 cycle moving average combine to form a volatile range, and the exchange rate may adjust within the range in the short term. The overall trend of the pound continues to decline, and if it continues to fall below the range, it will clearly indicate the arrival of a deep depreciation trend.
• Fibonacci retracement level: The exchange rate is currently in a rebounding trend, and the upper 50% Fibonacci retracement level is also the previous high level. Therefore, if the pound can break above 1.2820, the reversal trend of the pound is likely to occur.

Pivot Indicator

• According to the trading central in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 1.2810,
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 1.2810, first target 1.2830, second target 1.2850;
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 1.2810, first target 1.2765, second target 1.2745.

Conclusion

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