回归供需本质的铜博士，仍处下跌趋势 

今日Ultima Markets 为您带来了 2024年 8月 14日的铜深入分析。 

基本面要点 

• 铜博士的双重属性：作为对经济周期敏感的大宗商品铜来说，其兼具了金融属性和商品属性。若商品属性与金融属性同向共振时，铜价就会出现暴涨或暴跌；若背离方向出现则铜价将回归商品本身的供给和需求。 

• 铜价的空头因素：铜价的利空因素较为复杂，除了美联储降息预期的不断变化，此前的高铜价也抑制了下游消费，淡季库存的积压引发铜价回落。 

技术分析 

（铜的日线图，来源Ultima Markets MT4） 

• 随机震荡指标：指标第二次脱离超卖区域，再度发出多头信号，同时与市价形成底背离形态。这暗示短期铜价有一定的回调需求，甚至可能形成反转。 

• 关键阻力：铜价目前遇阻多重阻力——红色33日均线和虚线200日均线，同时也是前期多空转换价位4.2182附近。强势的阻力让铜价较难突破，但若有效站上该阻力，则铜价新的多头趋势将来临。 

1小时图表分析 

（铜的1小时图，来源Ultima Markets MT4） 

• 随机震荡指标：指标在超买区域发出空头信号，短期空头力量占据上风，铜价或将迎来下跌或者调整。 

• 支撑价位：铜价在反弹趋势中的低点不断抬高，而突破均线阻力后回踩均线未跌破，铜价有一定概率继续突破前高。相反，上升趋势线和下方的公允价值缺口若被跌破，则铜价或将延续日线空头趋势。 

Trading Central枢纽线指标 

（铜的30分钟图，来源Ultima Markets APP） 

• 根据Ultima Markets APP中的Trading Central枢纽线指标，当日中枢价位4.0055， 

• 4.0055之上看涨，第一目标4.0685，第二目标4.0795 

• 4.0055之下看跌，第一目标3.9885，第二目标3.9715 

免责声明  

本文所含评论、新闻、研究、分析、价格及其他资料只能视作一般市场资讯，仅为协助读者了解市场形势而提供，并不构成投资建议。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施确保资料的准确性，但不能保证资料的精确度，及可随时更改而毋须作出通知。Ultima Markets不会为直接或间接使用或依赖此等资料而可能引致的任何亏损或损失（包括但不限于任何盈利的损失）负责。

Willy

Willly is a skilled and experienced market analyst who has been analyzing financial markets for over 5 years. He currently serves as a Market Analyst at Ultima Markets, a leading financial services company. Willy brings a wealth of expertise in fundamental and technical analysis, having previously worked as Head of Financial Market Analyst at GCMAsia. There, he oversaw the research department and developed educational materials to build clients' financial knowledge. He also collaborated cross-functionally to amplify sales and achieve business goals. Prior to that role, Willy gained valuable experience as a Financial Market Analyst at the same company. He generated daily and weekly reports, conducted market briefings, and provided trading strategies through webinars. Read his latest market analyses on the Ultima Markets News & Analysis.

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