头寸展期降温铜价，短期或面临调整 

今日Ultima Markets 为您带来了 2024年 5月 17日铜的深入分析。 

基本面要点 

• 铜供给减少：影响铜市场动态的一个关键事件是巴拿马铜矿的关闭。该矿是全球重要的铜矿来源，此次关闭将市场对铜供应的预期从盈余转为赤字，推动了铜价的上涨。此外，3月份，中国冶炼厂因精矿短缺而决定减产，也进一步推高了价格。 
• 铜价稍作休息：由于通过商品指数持有看涨头寸的投资者将在6月初开始对其铜头寸进行展期，这可能会进一步缓解铜价下跌，从而为持有空头头寸的交易商提供了延期交割的机会，进而缓解后市。 

技术分析 

日线图表分析

（铜日线图，来源Ultima Markets MT4） 

• 随机震荡指标：指标脱离超买区域后再度发出多头信号，配合铜价形成了顶背离的形态，暗示当前市价存在较大的下跌动力。 
• 艾略特波浪：铜出现背离形态后疑似完成驱动浪浪5，今日若跌破昨日低点即可确认。届时铜价将迎来均值回归，下方看向红色33日均线和黑色65周期均线，同时也是上行通道线的下沿。  

1小时图表分析 

（铜1小时图，来源Ultima Markets MT4） 

• 随机震荡指标：指标昨日发出多头信号，铜价迎来短期反弹趋势。关注50中位线附近指标是否将再度发出空头信号，届时可以关注短期的做空机会 
• 支撑阻力价位：铜价跌破红色33周期和65周期均线组后昨日震荡调整，短期均线组将成为铜价的反弹阻力。下方则是另类趋势线支撑，汇价需要有效破位该支撑位才可继续关注空头机会。 

Trading Central枢纽线指标 

（铜30分钟图，来源Ultima Markets APP） 

• 根据Ultima Markets APP中的Trading Central枢纽线指标，当日中枢价位4.9150， 
• 4.9150之上看涨，第一目标4.9500，第二目标4.9705 
• 4.9150之下看跌，第一目标4.8450，第二目标4.8240 

免责声明  

本文所含评论、新闻、研究、分析、价格及其他资料只能视作一般市场资讯，仅为协助读者了解市场形势而提供，并不构成投资建议。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施确保资料的准确性，但不能保证资料的精确度，及可随时更改而毋须作出通知。Ultima Markets不会为直接或间接使用或依赖此等资料而可能引致的任何亏损或损失（包括但不限于任何盈利的损失）负责。  

Willy

Willly is a skilled and experienced market analyst who has been analyzing financial markets for over 5 years. He currently serves as a Market Analyst at Ultima Markets, a leading financial services company. Willy brings a wealth of expertise in fundamental and technical analysis, having previously worked as Head of Financial Market Analyst at GCMAsia. There, he oversaw the research department and developed educational materials to build clients' financial knowledge. He also collaborated cross-functionally to amplify sales and achieve business goals. Prior to that role, Willy gained valuable experience as a Financial Market Analyst at the same company. He generated daily and weekly reports, conducted market briefings, and provided trading strategies through webinars. Read his latest market analyses on the Ultima Markets News & Analysis.

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