降息预期叠加套息交易，商品货币再度受投机者青睐 

今日Ultima Markets 为您带来了 2024年 7月 25日纽元兑美元的深入分析。 

基本面要点 

• 鸽派发言：7月初新西兰联储连续第八次维持利率不变，并表示，紧缩的货币政策可能比预期更强烈地抑制了需求。鸽派的发言加大了市场对该行今年晚些时候开始降息的押注。 

• 套息货币贬值压力：本周三美元兑日元跌破关键价位，带动全球套息利差交易平仓。自7月3日跌至近40年低点以来，日元已累计升值逾4.5%。此前套利交易者青睐的资金主要是日元，套利交易者借入资金投资于收益率较高的货币。随着日本央行即将缩紧政策，商品货币澳元和纽元重回套息交易者的选择中，双重打击导致纽元和澳元的贬值趋势短期极为强劲。 

技术分析 

日线图表分析 

（纽元兑美元日线图，来源Ultima Markets MT4） 

• MACD：指标动能柱仍然继续放大，暗示当前下跌趋势的强劲。不能轻易看多做多，仍需要等待明确的动能柱缩减后才可关注多头交易机会。、 

• 支撑价位：纽元兑美元在跌破下行通道线后，明确了下跌驱动浪的结构。关注下方1.618倍的斐波那契扩展位附近，同时也是前期低点附近。不过当前遇阻1.382倍斐波那契扩展位附近，短期或存在反弹概率。 

1小时图表分析 

（纽元兑美元1小时图，来源Ultima Markets MT4） 

• 随机震荡指标：指标快速下跌进入超卖区域，汇价当前没有跌破前期低点，警惕出现底背离的结构。 

• 阻力区域：纽元兑美元昨日反弹后并未破坏下跌趋势，今日汇价若无法下破前低，继续上破多空转换价格区域（红色矩形框），则纽元或将迎来反转。反之汇价跌破前低则将延续下跌趋势。 

Trading Central枢纽线指标 

（纽元兑美元30分钟图，来源Ultima Markets APP） 

• 根据Ultima Markets APP中的Trading Central枢纽线指标，当日中枢价位0.5943， 

• 0.5943之上看涨，第一目标0.5962，第二目标0.5973 

• 0.5943之下看跌，第一目标0.5902，第二目标0.5891 

免责声明  

本文所含评论、新闻、研究、分析、价格及其他资料只能视作一般市场资讯，仅为协助读者了解市场形势而提供，并不构成投资建议。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施确保资料的准确性，但不能保证资料的精确度，及可随时更改而毋须作出通知。Ultima Markets不会为直接或间接使用或依赖此等资料而可能引致的任何亏损或损失（包括但不限于任何盈利的损失）负责。  

Willy

Willly is a skilled and experienced market analyst who has been analyzing financial markets for over 5 years. He currently serves as a Market Analyst at Ultima Markets, a leading financial services company. Willy brings a wealth of expertise in fundamental and technical analysis, having previously worked as Head of Financial Market Analyst at GCMAsia. There, he oversaw the research department and developed educational materials to build clients' financial knowledge. He also collaborated cross-functionally to amplify sales and achieve business goals. Prior to that role, Willy gained valuable experience as a Financial Market Analyst at the same company. He generated daily and weekly reports, conducted market briefings, and provided trading strategies through webinars. Read his latest market analyses on the Ultima Markets News & Analysis.

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