降息50基点仍待商榷，美元指数开启反弹 

今日Ultima Markets 为您带来了 2024年 8月 9日美元指数的深入分析。 

基本面要点 

• 50基点降息预期消退：美国至8月3日当周初请失业金人数为23.3万人，低于预期的24万人，降幅创近一年最大，缓解了市场对美国的衰退担忧，市场削减了对美联储9月降息50个基点的预期。 

• 甚至降息预期也待商榷：美联储官员越来越将焦点转向劳动力市场，因为通胀现在已经接近2%的目标，但由于劳动力市场仍然健康，美联储部分官员对外表示还没有准备好支持降息。 

技术分析 

日线图表分析 

（美元指数日线图，来源Ultima Markets MT4） 

• MACD：指标在0轴下方再度发出空头信号，明确了美元指数正处于下跌趋势。当前能量柱开始走平有缩减迹象，暗示短期汇价存在反弹调整空间。 

• 阻力价位：美元指数反弹上行，连续三天的小实体蜡烛图暗示趋势的不明朗。上方阻力较多，观察公允价值缺口和61.8%斐波那契回撤位附近的价格行为，届时值得关注是否存在做空机会。 

1小时图表分析 

（美元指数1小时图，来源Ultima Markets MT4） 

• MACD：指标正处于零轴上方盘整，能量柱未创出新高，汇价却走出背离趋势，突破前高。等待指标发出空头信号后，投资者可以关注是否存在做空机会。 

• 阻力和支撑：绿色200周期均线成为美元指数关键的阻力价位，极限反弹高度看向前期市场结构转换价位103.604附近。下方支撑则关注红色33周期和黑色65周期均线附近，亚盘时段短期均线走平，观察届时的价格行为。 

Trading Central枢纽线指标 

（美元指数30分钟图，来源Ultima Markets APP） 

• 根据Ultima Markets APP中的Trading Central枢纽线指标，当日中枢价位103.45， 

• 103.45之上看涨，第一目标103.60，第二目标103.76 

• 103.45之下看跌，第一目标103.05，第二目标102.92 

免责声明  

本文所含评论、新闻、研究、分析、价格及其他资料只能视作一般市场资讯，仅为协助读者了解市场形势而提供，并不构成投资建议。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施确保资料的准确性，但不能保证资料的精确度，及可随时更改而毋须作出通知。Ultima Markets不会为直接或间接使用或依赖此等资料而可能引致的任何亏损或损失（包括但不限于任何盈利的损失）负责。  

Willy

Willly is a skilled and experienced market analyst who has been analyzing financial markets for over 5 years. He currently serves as a Market Analyst at Ultima Markets, a leading financial services company. Willy brings a wealth of expertise in fundamental and technical analysis, having previously worked as Head of Financial Market Analyst at GCMAsia. There, he oversaw the research department and developed educational materials to build clients' financial knowledge. He also collaborated cross-functionally to amplify sales and achieve business goals. Prior to that role, Willy gained valuable experience as a Financial Market Analyst at the same company. He generated daily and weekly reports, conducted market briefings, and provided trading strategies through webinars. Read his latest market analyses on the Ultima Markets News & Analysis.

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