铜价反弹，7月或现逼空行情？ 

今日Ultima Markets 为您带来了 2024年 6月 21日铜的深入分析。 

基本面要点 

• 铜价回落：今年看涨铜的情绪大幅增加，这在一定程度上助长了空头挤压，并帮助纽约铜合约创下历史新高。伦敦和上海的铜价格也随之很快飙升至创纪录水平，但最近几周，随着一些投资者获利了结，以及对近期需求前景的担忧加剧，价格有所回落。 
• 逼空行情：7月份交割的纽约商品交易所铜合约比9月份合约每磅溢价7.4美分。现货溢价的再次出现，给空头头寸持有者带来压力，同时多头投资者仍在大量押注铜价上涨。 

技术分析 

日线图表分析

（铜日线图，来源Ultima Markets MT4） 

• 随机震荡指标：指标在超卖区域震荡调整一段时间后昨日确认多头信号，同时与汇价形成背离形态，短期铜价存在强烈的反弹上行意愿。 
• 支撑与阻力：铜价在前期浪3的50%斐波纳奇回撤位受阻反弹，即将遇阻红色33日均线，汇价若能正式站上该移动阻力上方，则铜价或将明确多头趋势。 

1小时图表分析 

（铜1小时图，来源Ultima Markets MT4） 

• 随机震荡指标：指标在超买区域发出空头信号，日内铜价存在回调压力。基于日线周期处于多头趋势，等待1小时图表上再度出现多头信号后，可以关注是否存在做多机会。 
• 均线支撑：尽管铜价目前突破了绿色200周期均线，但是存在均值回归的走势概率。若汇价能在回踩均线后继续上破4.5440这一关键压制阻力位，则铜价多头趋势确立。 

Trading Central枢纽线指标

（铜30分钟图，来源Ultima Markets APP） 

• 根据Ultima Markets APP中的Trading Central枢纽线指标，当日中枢价位4.5030， 
• 4.5030之上看涨，第一目标4.5745，第二目标4.5875 
• 4.5030之下看跌，第一目标4.4835，第二目标4.4645 

免责声明  

本文所含评论、新闻、研究、分析、价格及其他资料只能视作一般市场资讯，仅为协助读者了解市场形势而提供，并不构成投资建议。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施确保资料的准确性，但不能保证资料的精确度，及可随时更改而毋须作出通知。Ultima Markets不会为直接或间接使用或依赖此等资料而可能引致的任何亏损或损失（包括但不限于任何盈利的损失）负责。  

Willy

Willly is a skilled and experienced market analyst who has been analyzing financial markets for over 5 years. He currently serves as a Market Analyst at Ultima Markets, a leading financial services company. Willy brings a wealth of expertise in fundamental and technical analysis, having previously worked as Head of Financial Market Analyst at GCMAsia. There, he oversaw the research department and developed educational materials to build clients' financial knowledge. He also collaborated cross-functionally to amplify sales and achieve business goals. Prior to that role, Willy gained valuable experience as a Financial Market Analyst at the same company. He generated daily and weekly reports, conducted market briefings, and provided trading strategies through webinars. Read his latest market analyses on the Ultima Markets News & Analysis.

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