美联储降息概率大增，欧元突破阻力

今日Ultima Markets 为您带来了 2024年 5月 16日的欧元兑美元深入分析。 

基本面要点 

• 通胀放缓：美国4月未季调CPI年率录得3.4%，低于前月的3.5%。此外，美国4月零售销售环比持平，远低于市场预期的0.4%。 
• 9月降息概率提升：物价水平的放缓暗示美联储仍存宽松政策刺激经济的概率。投资者提高了对美联储9月和12月降息的押注。利率期货市场定价美联储今年将降息52个基点，较周二押注增加约10个基点，并认为首降将在9月。 

技术分析 

日线图表分析

（欧元兑美元的日线图，来源Ultima Markets MT4） 

• 随机震荡指标：指标脱离超买区域后再度发出多头信号，暗示短期趋势依旧强劲。投资者需要切换小周期，关注是否存在做多机会。 
• 突破阻力：汇价在突破均线组和绿色下行趋势线后，昨日快速上涨触及前期多空转换区域。这一定程度上暗示当前多头趋势明确，但值得注意的是通常这样的形态日内将迎来下跌调整。 

4小时图表分析 

（欧元兑美元的4小时图，来源Ultima Markets MT4） 

• 随机震荡指标：快线和慢线进入超买区域后斜率放缓同时纠缠震荡，暗示短期入场做多风险较大。 
• 上行通道：尽管指标随时可能发出空头信号，但目前汇价强势突破上行通道线，短期均线也都上穿了长期均线。多头趋势较为明确，日内趋势依旧以多头为主，看多不宜做多。 

Trading Central枢纽线指标 

（欧元兑美元的30分钟图，来源Ultima Markets APP） 

• 根据Ultima Markets APP中的Trading Central枢纽线指标，当日中枢价位1.0860， 
• 1.0860之上看涨，第一目标1.0910，第二目标1.0930 
• 1.0860之下看跌，第一目标1.0840，第二目标1.0820 

免责声明  

本文所含评论、新闻、研究、分析、价格及其他资料只能视作一般市场资讯，仅为协助读者了解市场形势而提供，并不构成投资建议。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施确保资料的准确性，但不能保证资料的精确度，及可随时更改而毋须作出通知。Ultima Markets不会为直接或间接使用或依赖此等资料而可能引致的任何亏损或损失（包括但不限于任何盈利的损失）负责。  

Willy

Willly is a skilled and experienced market analyst who has been analyzing financial markets for over 5 years. He currently serves as a Market Analyst at Ultima Markets, a leading financial services company. Willy brings a wealth of expertise in fundamental and technical analysis, having previously worked as Head of Financial Market Analyst at GCMAsia. There, he oversaw the research department and developed educational materials to build clients' financial knowledge. He also collaborated cross-functionally to amplify sales and achieve business goals. Prior to that role, Willy gained valuable experience as a Financial Market Analyst at the same company. He generated daily and weekly reports, conducted market briefings, and provided trading strategies through webinars. Read his latest market analyses on the Ultima Markets News & Analysis.

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