In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the AUDUSD for 15th November 2023. 

Key Takeaways 

• CPI hits the dollar: U.S. October CPI and core CPI data were both lower than expected, and interest rate futures price the Fed’s current interest rate hike cycle to a complete end 
• The Fed’s interest rate cut cycle is coming: The overall interest rate hike cycle is expected to end, leading the market to begin to expect a cumulative 100 basis points interest rate cut by the end of next year, with the first round of interest rate cuts as early as May. These have put extreme pressure on the dollar to sell off. 

Technical Analysis 

Daily Chart Insights 

• Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator sent a bull signal above the 50 midline yesterday, suggesting that the exchange rate will start a strong upward trend.  
• 65-day moving average: The exchange rate strongly exceeded the 65-day moving average yesterday, and the resistance line converted into a support line. The probability of the Australian dollar continuing to depreciate is low. 

1-hour Chart Analysis 

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator enters the overbought area to form a short signal, suggesting that the subsequent market will enter a correction. Traders should not rush to enter the market chasing high prices, as the profit-loss ratio is inappropriate. 
• Fibonacci retracement levels: In a rapidly rising market, the correction usually looks towards the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. 

Pivot Indicator 

• According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is established at 0.64713, 
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 0.64713, first target 0.65821, second target 0.66232; 
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below0.64713, first target 0.64302, second target 0.63202. 

Conclusion 

To navigate the complex world of trading successfully, it’s imperative to stay informed and make data-driven decisions. Ultima Markets remains dedicated to providing you with valuable insights to empower your financial journey. 

For personalized guidance tailored to your specific financial situation, please do not hesitate to contact Ultima Markets. 

Join Ultima Markets today and access a comprehensive trading ecosystem equipped with the tools and knowledge needed to thrive in the financial markets. 

Stay tuned for more updates and analyses from our team of experts at Ultima Markets. 

—– 

Legal Documents 

Ultima Markets, a trading name of Ultima Markets Ltd, is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission “FSC” of Mauritius as an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) (license No. GB 23201593). The registered office address: 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, 72201, Mauritius. 

Copyright © 2023 Ultima Markets Ltd. All rights reserved. 

Disclaimer   

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.  

Comprehensive USD/JPY for November 14, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the USD/JPY for 14th November 2023. 

Key Takeaways 

• The widening interest rate gap is the fundamental factor: On October 31, the Bank of Japan further relaxed its control on government bond yields, while the Federal Reserve still has the possibility of raising interest rates. The policy interest rate gap between the two continues to widen, causing the Japanese yen to fall into a continued depreciation trend. 
• Carry trade is a booster: The interest rate differential between the two countries and the recent continued low volatility of the yen also encourage carry trade. It is a strategy of selling low-interest Japanese yen funds in exchange for high-yielding currencies. This is a contributing factor that keeps the yen under pressure. 
• The Japanese yen unexpectedly surged: The Japanese yen unexpectedly surged during the U.S. trading session yesterday, which once made the market think that the Bank of Japan had intervened. However, according to the current news, it may be an appreciation fluctuation caused by the adjustment of Japanese yen options positions. Previously, when asked whether he was prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market or take other measures to curb the yen’s decline, Japan’s top monetary official Masato Kanda said that the authorities “are on standby.” 
• Frightened Japanese Yen: If the U.S. economic data released this week is good, the Fed’s suspense about raising interest rates will remain. This could push USD/JPY towards the 152 range. However, the continued depreciation of the yen will make the market continue to be wary of the intervention of the Bank of Japan. Once there are signs of appreciation of the yen, the withdrawal of profit-making positions and traders preparing to go long yen on the sidelines will cause the dollar to experience a rapid downward trend against the yen. 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Weekly Chart Insights

• Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator has already showed a short signal in early October, but the current market price and the indicator continue to deviate. This implies that the current upward trend is very fragile. Even if it breaks through the high point of October last year again, it cannot be judged as bullish.
• 5-week moving average: Since August this year, the overall upward trend of the US dollar against the yen has always been supported by the 5-week moving average. If the 5-week moving average cannot support the overall upward trend, the market’s downward trend could be established.

USD/JPY 1-hour Chart Analysis

• ATR combination indicator: The volatility suddenly rose yesterday, but it still did not break through the average volatility of the past 200 hours. This implies that yesterday’s rapid decline was not an effective breakthrough, and there is still a possibility that the market will continue to rise.
• Neckline: The rapid decline in the market fell below the neckline support level, and then the market price slowly rose. It is now back to test the neckline price. If it continues to rise, the top structure will be effective, and the market will continue to hit highs.

Ultima Markets MT4 Pivot Indicator

• According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is established at 151.607,
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 151.607, first target 152.017, second target 152.321;
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 151.607, first target 151.307, second target 150.900.

Conclusion

Comprehensive AUD/USD for November 10, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the AUD/USD for 10th November 2023. 

Key Takeaways 

• RBA raised interest rates: The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% on Tuesday. Since the market had already expected the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates, the previous appreciation of the Australian dollar had already factored in this information. Subsequently, Bullock hinted that the obstacles to further tightening of policy have increased, causing the Australian dollar to fall. 
• The RBA is not strong: In fact, the market is pricing in not only an interest rate hike by the RBA in November, but also another interest rate hike in this cycle. But subsequent RBA statements failed to confirm this hawkish stance, instead taking a data-reliant approach to assessing the need for further tightening. 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis 

AUD/USD Daily Chart Insights

• Stochastic Oscillator: After the indicator issued a short signal, it went all the way down. The short-term trend of the Australian dollar was confirmed to be depreciation. It is worth noting that it is close to the 50 mid-line, so be wary of a rebound or reversal. 
• Moving average combination: The exchange rate fell below the moving support formed by the 33-day and 65-day moving average combination. After the exchange rate closed below the 33-day moving average yesterday, the probability of the market continuing to decline increased. 
• Downward trend line: On November 1, the exchange rate broke through the downward trend line, and today it stepped back on the trend line. If there is any stop signal, the exchange rate still has the possibility of reversing upward. 

AUD/USD 4-hour Chart Analysis

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator is not currently oversold, and there is a certain bottom divergence pattern in line with the market, suggesting that the current downward space is limited, and may enter an adjustment or even rebound next. 
• Fibonacci retracement level: Yesterday, the exchange rate fell rapidly to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Usually, such a rapid decline close to the resistance area has a certain probability of rebound. 

Ultima Markets MT4 Pivot Indicator

• According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is established at 0.63814, 
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 0.63814, first target 0.63991, second target 0.64461; 
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 0.63814, first target 0.63344, second target 0.63167. 

Conclusion 

Comprehensive Brent Oil for November 9, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the BRENT OIL for 9th November 2023. 

Key Takeaways 

• Global economic downturn: The overseas economic recovery is less than expected. For example, the U.S. unemployment rate has exceeded expectations in the past two months, and the new orders index has accelerated its contraction. This has led to doubts about the future demand for crude oil, and oil prices have followed the trend to chart the gains driven by early risk aversion. 
• The balance between S/D supports oil prices: The overall supply side of crude oil has not yet shown signs of tightening. In the long term, the supply and demand pattern is relatively loose, but in the short term there may be production cuts on the supply side, and there may be some support for prices. 

Brent Oil Technical Analysis

Brent Oil Daily Chart Insights

• Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator has entered the oversold range, and the selling pressure is serious. You need to be alert to the coming of a short-term intraday rebound in the market. 
• Moving average: After the 5-day moving average completely fell below the 200-day moving average, the market did not show an effective rebound structure, and the two consecutive days of decline may take some time to correct. The rebound target price is looking towards the 5-day moving average. 
• Downward channel line: Since crude oil began to fall on September 27, the overall market trend has formed a downward channel line. Yesterday’s decline touched the lower edge of the channel line, and there is a certain probability of a rebound in the short term. 

Brent Oil 1-hour Chart Analysis

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator has sent a long signal, and oil prices have a certain rebound momentum. However, oil prices cannot rebound lightly until they break through the 81.316 level. 
• Price Action: Oil prices are currently in a strong downward trend, and you cannot arbitrarily choose to enter the market at the bottom. Although the current indicators are suggesting that a rebound is imminent, we need to wait for a clear bullish structure before making a correction. 

Ultima Markets MT4 Pivot Indicator

• According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is established at 81.178, 
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 81.178, first target 82.268, second target 83.852; 
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 81.178, first target 79.594, second target 78.519. 

Bottom Line

Comprehensive EUR/USD for November 8, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the EUR/USD for 8th November 2023. 

Key Takeaways

• Hawkish statement from Fed member: Federal Reserve member Kashkari said that given the recent series of strong economic data, the Fed may have to take more measures to reduce inflation to the 2% target level. At the same time, regarding the issue of interest rate cuts, he said that the FOMC did not discuss the content of interest rate cuts. 
• Powell will address a speech: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at the event tonight, and the market is paying attention to whether the chairman will release more forward guidance. 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis 

EUR/USD Daily Chart Insights

• Stochastic Oscillator: After the indicator hovered at the 50 mid-line for a period of time, it issued a bull signal again. However, judging from the market situation, the current bullish trend is still not clear and needs to wait for important resistance levels to be broken before it can be confirmed.
• Moving average: The recent rise has hit the moving average resistance, then broke through the moving average after a correction, and then encountered resistance to the moving average again. Yesterday, the market touched the key 240-day moving average (green). Pay attention to whether the market will completely open up the upper space after the correction.  

EUR/USD 1-hour Chart Analysis

• Stochastic oscillator: After the indicator forms a long signal, the market does not rise rapidly. The price may still oscillate, and the indicator may send a long signal again before looking for trading opportunities. 
• Moving average: The current 65-period moving average is the key support and resistance conversion level during the day. If the price rebounds and breaks through 1.07047, the exchange rate will look towards the purple 2400-period moving average. On the contrary, if it falls below the black 65-period moving average, the euro will still depreciate in the short term. 
• Fibonacci retracement level: The market is blocked at the 38.2% retracement level. If it continues to fall below, focus on the 50% retracement level. This price is also the overlap position of the green 240-period moving average. 

Ultima Markets MT4 Pivot Indicator

• According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is established at 1.06962, 
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 1.06962, first target 1.07280, second target 1.07542; 
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 1.06962, first target 1.06699, second target 1.06387. 

Conclusion

Comprehensive AUD/USD for November 7, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the AUD/USD for 7th November 2023. 

Key Takeaways

• Changes in the RBA’s monetary policy: The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its latest interest rate decision at noon. Due to the unexpectedly strong CPI in Australia in the third quarter and the rebound in housing prices to near record highs, the market expects that the possibility of the Reserve Bank of Australia raising interest rates by 25 basis points this week reaches 60% . On the contrary, if there is no sign of tightening in monetary policy, AUD/USD will enter a rapid downward trend. 
• Bullock has a hawkish attitude: The new chairman of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bullock, said in a public speech that “if the inflation outlook shows a substantial increase, we will not hesitate to further raise the cash rate.” Expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will resume raising interest rates have triggered a strong rise in the Australian dollar recently. 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis 

AUD/USD Daily Chart Insights

• Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator has entered the overbought area, indicating the strength of the current bullish trend. Although there were signs of a reversal yesterday, we cannot judge that a reversal is coming without confirmation. 
• Moving average: After the exchange rate strongly breaks through the 33-day moving average and the 65-day moving average, it hints that the current bullish trend is coming, and the resistance level is looking towards the 200-day moving average (dashed line). There is a certain probability of going back to the green 5-day moving average. 

AUD / USD 1-hour Chart Analysis

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator is still in the oversold area. Judging from the market trend, it is currently in the consolidation stage. Wait for the indicator to show a long signal before paying attention to whether there are trading opportunities. 
• Price Action: After consolidation for two trading days, the market formed a rectangular range. After falling below the range, the exchange rate will most likely continue to decline in the short term. Pay attention to the support price below. 
• Support price: The red 65-period moving average is the first target support level. If the market enters a deep correction, continue to look at the upper edge of the upward channel line. 

Ultima Markets MT4 Pivot Indicator

• According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is established at 0.64993, 
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 0.64993, first target 0.65131, second target 0.65371; 
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 0.64993, first target 0.64752, second target 0.64608. 

Conclusion 

Comprehensive Brent Oil for November 3, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the Brent Oil (UKOUSD) for 3rd November 2023.

Key Takeaways 

• Russian supply increases: Tanker tracking data monitored by foreign media show that Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports have been exceeding the country’s export target as part of the OPEC+ agreement for several weeks. Observed exports in the most recent week were 360,000 barrels per day above target exports. In the most recent period, four-week average daily exports were nearly 200,000 barrels per day above that level.
• The impact of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is gradually weakening: Traders are still worried that something will cause the conflict to spread beyond Israel and its immediate neighbors. But that influence has steadily waned, even after Israel began its ground offensive in Gaza. 

Brent Oil Technical Analysis 

Brent Oil Daily Chart Insights

• Stochastic Oscillator: The fast line is about to cross the slow line, suggesting that the current bullish power may have the upper hand. However, we are still temporarily bearish until there is a clear signal. 
• Price Action: After oil prices showed a pin bar on Wednesday, the closing line showed a typical harami price action yesterday. If it breaks through the high point of the pin bar today, the bulls will clearly have the upper hand, and the market may reverse upward. 
• Moving average: The black 65-day moving average and the green 240-day moving average form a rectangular range. A breakthrough in any direction of the range may be the next trend direction. 

Brent Oil 1-Hour Chart Analysis

• Support and resistance price: The current resistance of oil price is a repeatedly verified downward trend line, and the bottom is the black 65-period moving average potential support level. 
• Fibonacci retracement level: Since the internal structure of yesterday’s upward trend is a complete 5-wave structure, it is temporarily judged to be a driving wave. Wait for the market to fall back to the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% to observe whether there is a signal to continue to rise.  
• Stochastic Oscillator: It is worth noting that the indicator is currently seriously overbought, and there is a certain probability of a correction during the Asian session. 

Ultima Markets MT4 Pivot Indicator

• According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is established at 87.361, 
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 87.361, first target is 89.077, second target is 89.769. 
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 87.361, first target 86.688, second target 84.991. 

Conclusion 

Comprehensive USD/CAD for November 2, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the USD/CAD for 2nd November 2023. 

Key Takeaways 

• Federal Reserve’s attitude: The interest rate decision of Federal Reserve did not change the policy interest rate as expected. Fed members have been working hard to balance the two risks. They do not want to raise interest rates too much and cause an unnecessary deep recession, nor do they want to accelerate inflation again or stabilize well above the 2% target. 
• The Canadian dollar may be favored: The Canadian employment survey shows that the labor market continues to be tight and wages continue to rise significantly. The unexpectedly strong data raised the possibility of further interest rate hikes from the Bank of Canada, while the prospect of higher oil prices also increased the likelihood of a higher Canadian dollar. 

USD/CAD Technical Analysis 

USD/CAD Daily Chart Insights

• Stochastic Oscillator: After the indicator formed a short signal in the overbought area, it began to turn downward yesterday, suggesting that the exchange rate may begin to decline. 
• Price Action: After the exchange rate fluctuated at a high level for four trading days, it closed as a small doji candle yesterday. If it finally closes the dark candle bar today, the market may adjust downward in the future. 
• 5-day moving average: The 5-day moving average has supported the continuous upward trend. If the market closes below the 5-day moving average, the upward trend of the exchange rate will end in the short term. 

USD/CAD 1-hour Chart Analysis

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator is still in the oversold area, and there is no bull signal, suggesting that the current short forces have the upper hand and cannot easily choose to buy the bottom. 
• Price Action: Since October 31st, it has fluctuated at high levels to form a rectangular range. After the market fell below the range, the red 65-period moving average failed to support the decline. The next target of the market is the black support line, which may also be the 200-period moving average. 

Ultima Markets MT4 Pivot Indicator

• According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is established at 1.38655, 
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 1.38655, first target 1.38898, second target 1.39233; 
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 1.38655, first target 1.38321, second target 1.38076. 

Conclusion 

Comprehensive EUR/USD for November 1, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the EUR/USD for 1st November 2023. 

Key Takeaways 

• ECB monetary policy: The latest interest rate decision of the European Central Bank has chosen to suspend interest rate hikes, it is the first time since July 2022.  As expectations for the suspension of interest rate hikes have been generally reflected in the markets, short-term volatility in Europe and the United States will be modest.
• Economic outlook for the Eurozone: The manufacturing industry in the Eurozone continues to decline, the service industry is weak, demand is sluggish, and the economy may remain fragile in the coming months. 
• The US dollar may be strong: The market is betting that the interest rate decision announced by the Federal Reserve early Thursday may not raise interest rates, but may maintain hawkish rhetoric. The yield of two-year US bonds, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, rose to 5.08% 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis 

EUR/USD Daily Chart Insights

• Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator’s fast line and slow line were entangled yesterday, and the market entered a oscillating rhythm again. Wait for the indicator to show long or short signals. 
• Price Action: After the exchange rate returns to the moving average, a pin bar appears, indicating that short sellers have the upper hand, but short sellers still need to wait for the market to fall below the previous low price of 1.0520. 
• Flag-shaped consolidation structure: The exchange rate has fluctuated upward since October 4, and the overall price has shown a flag-shaped shock range. The 65 moving average successfully suppressed the further rebound of the exchange rate. Next, we will pay attention to whether today’s market can fall below the range. If the range is still effectively supported, the market will rebound and rise again. Otherwise, short opportunities will come. 

EUR/USD 1-hour Chart Analysis

• Stochastic Oscillator: The fast line is about to cross the slow line, suggesting that the exchange rate is about to fall into consolidation in the short term. 
• Moving average combination: The exchange rate fell below the 200-period moving average. Currently, the 33-period moving average and the 65-period moving average have not yet crossed the 200-period moving average. Theoretically, when the fast line crosses the slow line, the market may return to the short-term moving average group. 

Ultima Markets MT4 Pivot Indicator

• According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is established at 1.06023, 
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 1.06023, first target 1.06469, second target 1.07193; 
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 1.06023, first target 1.05299, second target 1.04851. 

Conclusion 

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the EURUSD for 26th October 2023. 

Key Takeaways 

• ECB will not raise interest rates: Today the European Central Bank announced its latest interest rate decision. In September, the ECB unexpectedly raised interest rates for the tenth consecutive time. But then it was hinted that this round of interest rate hikes is coming to an end and the ECB may not raise interest rates for the rest of this year. The market will focus on whether the ECB has additional forward guidance. 
• Euro depends on USD: Since the European Central Bank will “almost certainly” keep interest rates unchanged, the euro is more likely to be driven by the economy of the US. Tonight, the United States will announce the number of initial jobless claims last week and PCE data for the third quarter. 

Technical Analysis 

Daily Chart Insights 

• Stochastic Oscillator: The fast line of the indicator crossed below the slow line yesterday, suggesting that a bearish trend in the market is coming. 
• Price action: The exchange rate showed a bearish price action on Tuesday, and then the candle bar pulled back to the 5-day moving average and fell below Tuesday’s low, suggesting that bears have the upper hand. 
• Flag-shaped consolidation structure: The exchange rate has fluctuated upward since October 4, and the overall price has shown a flag-shaped range. Next, we will pay attention to whether price can fall below the range today. If the range is still effectively supported, the market will rebound and rise again. Otherwise, short opportunities will come. 

1-hour Chart Analysis 

• Stochastic Oscillator: The fast line is about to cross the slow line, suggesting that the exchange rate is about to fall into consolidation in the short term. 
• Moving average group: The exchange rate fell below the 200-period moving average. Currently, the 33-period moving average and the 65-period moving average have not yet crossed the 200-period moving average. Theoretically, when the fast line crosses the slow line, the market price may pull back to the short-term moving average group. 

Pivot Indicator 

• According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is established at 1.05797, 
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 1.05797, first target 1.05933, second target 1.06205; 
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below  1.05797, first target 1.05526, second target 1.05383. 

Conclusion 

To navigate the complex world of trading successfully, it’s imperative to stay informed and make data-driven decisions. Ultima Markets remains dedicated to providing you with valuable insights to empower your financial journey. 

For personalized guidance tailored to your specific financial situation, please do not hesitate to contact Ultima Markets. 

Join Ultima Markets today and access a comprehensive trading ecosystem equipped with the tools and knowledge needed to thrive in the financial markets. 

Stay tuned for more updates and analyses from our team of experts at Ultima Markets. 

Legal Documents 

Ultima Markets, a trading name of Ultima Markets Ltd, is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission “FSC” of Mauritius as an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) (license No. GB 23201593). The registered office address: 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, 72201, Mauritius. 

Copyright © 2023 Ultima Markets Ltd. All rights reserved. 

Disclaimer   

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.