Focus on XAU/USD today. 

Fundamentally, there has been a large divergence between China’s domestic gold prices and international gold prices recently, but the bullish drive for domestic gold is mostly due to the depreciation of the local currency and the impact of restrictions on gold imports. It is difficult for international gold prices to be driven by this, but as the monetary policies of various countries come to an end, in line with expectations of falling inflation and economic downturn, international gold prices have certain upward momentum. At present, the market still needs a stimulus to allow gold prices to start a long-term bull trend again. 

Technically, the cross of the stochastic oscillator on the gold daily chart has been established, suggesting the arrival of a bullish trend. 

( Daily chart of XAU/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The market has ushered in a rebound trend since it hit the 200-day moving average last Thursday. However, it is worth noting that the top is about to hit the downward trend line, and the remaining rebound space is relatively narrow. 

(4-hour chart of XAU/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the 4-hour chart, the stochastic oscillator has entered the overbought zone, suggesting that potential gold bulls may be blocked. However, judging from the chart, after the market hit the 200-period moving average, the large entity of candle bar broke through the consolidation range since last Friday, and there is a high probability that the bullish trend will continue in the Asian session.

 (1-hour chart of XAU/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day was 1930.16. 

Bullish above 1930.16, the first target is 1937.62, and the second target is 1941.74 

Bearish below 1930.16, first target 1925.98, second target 1918.40 

Disclaimer 

Comments, news, research, analysis, prices and other information contained in this article can only be regarded as general market information, provided only to help readers understand the market situation, and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information. 

Focus on USD/CAD today. 

Fundamentally, the continued rise in oil prices this week has driven market demand for the Canadian dollar and promoted the appreciation of the Canadian dollar. This has also made the implementation of the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy more difficult to a certain extent. In the short term, oil prices affect the appreciation trend of the Canadian dollar. However, as Canada’s real per capita GDP shrank year-on-year in the second quarter, the unemployment rate began to rise in May, and coupled with the continued drag on mortgage loan renewals, Canada’s price level may go downward. Therefore, if there are no unexpected changes in supply and demand in the crude oil market, it may be difficult to change the Bank of Canada’s stance of keeping interest rates unchanged at the October meeting.

Technically, the downward trend line on the weekly chart of USD/CAD effectively prevents the exchange rate from rising further. After encountering resistance last week, it has entered a downward trend this week. However, the stochastic oscillator has a clear short signal, and we need to wait for the final closing today. 

(Weekly chart of USD/CAD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The market has started an upward trend since hitting the 200-week moving average in mid-August. Based on the complete five-wave structure of the entire upward trend, the current decline is temporarily judged to be an adjustment structure of the previous upward trend. After sufficient adjustment, the Canadian dollar may further depreciate. 

(Daily chart of USD/CAD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the daily chart, the rate has reached a very critical support position against the Canadian dollar. The market finally retreated after the stochastic oscillator signaled a double divergence. At present, it has fallen to near the 33-day moving average. The clear top structure means that the current support position is a strong resistance area, and bulls may usher in a “counterattack” in this area during the day. 

(1-hour chart of USD/CAD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the 1-hour chart, the oscillator also sent out a bottom divergence signal yesterday, and the market is likely to consolidate or rebound in the short term. If the market breaks through 1.35173 during the Asian session, traders can focus on rebound trading opportunities during the day. The first target is around the red 65 moving average. 

(1-hour chart of USD/CAD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day was 1.35173. 

Bullish above 1.35173, the first target is 1.35422, the second target is 1.35789 

Bearish below 1.35173, first target 1.34816, second target 1.34570 

Disclaimer 

Comments, news, research, analysis, prices and other information contained in this article can only be regarded as general market information, provided only to help readers understand the market situation, and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information. 

Focus on EUR/USD today. 

Fundamentally, Traders will pay more attention to European Central Bank interest rate decision tonight. As the Eurozone’s second-quarter GDP growth rate dropped from 0.3% to 0.1%, the latest PMI data also showed that economic activity in the service industry and manufacturing industry shrank intensified in August. The sluggish economy coupled with high inflation and the haze of stagflation make interest rate decision of the European Central Bank full of suspense. If the European Central Bank chooses to pause interest rate hikes for the first time in this year,  without additional hawkish comments, the euro may fall further against the dollar. 

Technically, the euro’s short trend has temporarily gained the upper hand on daily chart. The 200-day moving average has been exceeded, the exchange rate is completely below the 200-day moving average, and the 33-day moving average and the 65-day moving average have also formed a dead cross downward. 

( Daily chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

It is worth noting that when the short-term moving average group is close to the 200-day moving average, the market is likely to fluctuate. A complete short trend requires waiting for the short-term moving average group to fall below the 200-day moving average as well. Therefore, although the market started to rise this week, it is currently judged to be a rebound, and the rebound is weak. 

(4-hour chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the 4-hour chart, the overlap between 1.07665 and the 65-period moving average is a strong resistance area, and the market failed to break through twice. Before the market completely rises above this resistance, the power of shorts will always be slightly stronger than that of bulls. 

(1-hour chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the 1-hour chart, the flag-shaped area is still in progress. For trading opportunities, traders need to wait for the signal of the stochastic oscillator, or the market falls below the previous low. 

(1-hour chart of EUR/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day was 1.07351. 

Bullish above 1.07351, first target 1.07595, second target 1.07893 

Bearish below 1.07351, first target is 1.07056, second target is 1.06813 

Disclaimer 

Comments, news, research, analysis, prices and other information contained in this article can only be regarded as general market information, provided only to help readers understand the market situation, and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information. 

Focus on Brent Oil today. 

Fundamentally, with OPEC and EIA predicting that production cuts will tighten the market in the coming months, Brent crude oil has finally returned to above $90. The International Energy Agency will also release its monthly report today, which is expected to provide more clues to market conditions. The market focuses on whether the report also emphasizes that crude oil production will tighten supply for the rest of this year. 

Technically, the stochastic oscillation in daily chart has once again risen with a golden cross, indicating the arrival of bulls. The moving average group also raised their heads to support the market’s further upward trend. 

( Daily chart of Brent Oil, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

There is currently no moving average suppression above crude oil, and there is little resistance for bulls. Although the current signal of the stochastic oscillator occurs in the overbought area, judging from the chart, even if the market declines again, it will still have the support of the moving average group. 

(1-hour chart of Brent Oil, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the 1-hour period, crude oil finally broke through resistance and moved upward yesterday after oscillating for nearly 5 trading days. At present, the stochastic oscillator crosses downwards, and the market has a potential adjustment probability in the Asian market. Priority is given to the resistance level for breakthroughs. After waiting for the stochastic oscillator to cross again, traders can pay attention to the long entry opportunities. 

(1-hour chart of Brent Oil, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day was 91.892. 

Bullish above 91.892, first target 93.001, second target 93.733 

Bearish below 91.892, first target is 91.128, second target is 89.995 

Disclaimer 

Comments, news, research, analysis, prices and other information contained in this article can only be regarded as general market information, provided only to help readers understand the market situation, and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information. 

Focus on GBP/USD today. 

Fundamentally, UK is to release its latest August unemployment data on Tuesday. The previous PMI final value data for the manufacturing industry confirmed a downward trend, shrinking for the sixth consecutive month. If the job market shows weakness as well, although inflationary pressure decreases, the outlook for the UK economy may be interpreted as sluggish by the market. 

Technically, it can be observed from the weekly chart of the pound that although the random volatility indicator is still in a downward trend, the market is still trapped in the volatility range of the moving average group. 

( Weekly chart of GBP/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The 5-week moving average suppressed the rebound in the exchange rate, while the 33-week and 65-week moving averages supported further downward movements in the market. There is still a possibility of further volatility in the market this week. 

(Daily chart of GBP/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The short forces on the copper daily chart temporarily have the upper hand. The stochastic oscillator crosses downwards. Since the downward trend since early August has been a downward motive wave, there is a certain probability that the recent decline will continue the extended downward trend. 

(1-hour chart of GBP/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the daily chart, yesterday’s rebound in the market led to a random volatility indicator sending out a bullish signal, but due to yesterday’s K line being only a cross star, the upward momentum of the rebound may be limited. Even if the rebound continues, it is still necessary to conservatively look towards the resistance 1.25675. 

(1-hour chart of GBP/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price on that day is 1.25065, 

Bullish above 1.25065, with the first target of 1.25511 and the second target of 1.25930 

Bearish below 1.25065, with first target 1.24647 and second target 1.24209 

Disclaimer 

Comments, news, research, analysis, prices and other information contained in this article can only be regarded as general market information, provided only to help readers understand the market situation, and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information. 

Focus on Copper today. 

Fundamentally, after the release of employment data and PMI data, metals are still under pressure due to potential secondary inflation risks in the United States. On the supply side, according to the latest statistics from the London Metal Exchange, copper inventories increased by 3,150 tons. The increase in inventories means that market demand has not expanded. These short-term news still did not lead to a significant decline in copper prices, suggesting that short-term copper still has room for long-term gains after digesting the market news. 

Technically, copper prices are once again close to the 200-week moving average on a weekly basis, and the market showed signs of resistance and rebound in the first two times. 

(Weekly chart of Copper, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The 65-week moving average continues to suppress the upper rebound space of copper prices. Pay attention to whether the final closing price of the market today on Friday can effectively break the 200-week moving average. The market deserves to focus on the short trend next week.

(Daily chart of Copper, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The short forces on the copper daily cycle temporarily have the upper hand. The stochastic oscillator crosses downwards. Since the downward trend since early August has been a downward motive wave, there is a certain probability that the recent decline will continue the extended downward trend. 

(1-hour chart of Copper, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the intraday 1-hour period, the stochastic oscillator has not entered the overbought area for the time being, and the market is still likely to be a mess. Even if the Asian market is currently falling, we need to wait for the short signal of the stochastic oscillator indicator to be confirmed, and then wait for the breakthrough of the low before we can focus on intraday short trading opportunities.

(1-hour chart of Copper, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the pivot price of the day is 3.7334. 

Bullish above 3.7334, first target 3.7575, second target 3.7862 

Bearish below 3.7334, first target 3.7047, second target 3.6805. 

Disclaimer 

Comments, news, research, analysis, prices and other information contained in this article can only be regarded as general market information, provided only to help readers understand the market situation, and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information. 

Focus on XAU/USD today. 

Fundamentally, yesterday the United States released ISM data on the service industry, just like the market outlook shared on Monday. The Fed is currently looking for data support. Consumption is one of the three economic carriages in the United States. The good performance of the ISM service industry PMI will greatly stimulate the bullish trend of the US dollar. The PMI data unexpectedly strengthened in August to 54.5, reflecting sustained strength in consumer demand and the overall economy and strengthening hopes that the United States can avoid recession. It also brings potential signs that inflation will still rise, and the dollar will maintain a certain bullish trend until the data is digested this week. 

Technically, the gold finally fell below the 33-day and 7-day moving average yesterday, and the market’s short trend is relatively clear. 

(Daily chart of XAU/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

The stochastic oscillator also sent a short signal, and the market on the daily chart has a probability of going back to the moving average lines during the Asian session. 

(4-hour chart of XAU/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

On the 4-hour chart, after the market peaked and fell below the neckline this week, the moving average lines subsequently made a dead cross which is kind of short signal. It is worth noting that the stochastic oscillator currently indicates that the market is about to bottom out, and there is a certain probability of rebound or consolidation. 

(1-hour chart of XAU/USD, source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the pivot of the day was 1919.46. 

Bullish above 1919.46, the first target is 1923.54, and the second target is 1933.25 

Bearish below 1919.46, the first target is 1909.75, the second target is 1905.56 

Disclaimer 

Comments, news, research, analysis, prices and other information contained in this article can only be regarded as general market information, provided only to help readers understand the market situation, and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any damage or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information. 

Focus on AUD/JPY.

Fundamentally speaking, Japan’s inflation has not declined, which increases the probability of the Bank of Japan’s future tightening policy. After a long-term depreciation, the yen has space for a short-term rebound. AUD/JPY has less room for arbitrage than USD/JPY. With strong USD, please watch out for AUD/JPY bear.

Technically speaking, the AUD/JPY daily stochastic oscillator shows a dead cross, falling below the 50 median line.

(Golden daily cycle, Ultima Markets MT4)

The exchange rate began to decline after falling below the 65- day moving average. It is worth noting that before the short-term moving average crosses again, the market has a high probability of touching the 240 -day moving average and rising again.

(AUD/JPY in 1 -hour period, Ultima Markets MT4)

In 1-hour period, the bearish trend is obvious, and the exchange has fallen below the 2400 -period moving average. However, there is a certain probability that it will find support and rebound there. You may wait for short entry here.

(AUD/JPY in 1 -hour period, Ultima Markets MT4)

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price is 93.489,

Bullish above 93.489, the first target is 93.759, and the second target 94.272.

Bearish below 93.489, the first target is 92.987, and the second target is 92.706.

Disclaimer Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

Focus on gold.

Fundamentally speaking, the US released retail sales in July increased by 0.7% mom. The figure for June was also revised up to 0.3% from 0.2%, suggesting the U.S. economy continued to expand in 3Q and avoid recession. Consequently, inflation stays still in the short run.  With demand remaining resilient and labor market tightening, curbing inflation has become a tricky problem for the FED. We believe gold is heading for a bounce.

Technically speaking, the gold daily has come to a key support zone – the 240-day moving average .

(Gold daily cycle, Ultima Markets MT4)

The 240-day moving average has been a supportive position for gold since 2022. The gold price made small fluctuations in the supportive zone during the past week, nevertheless, the stochastic oscillator signaled a golden cross yesterday.

(Gold in 1- hour period, Ultima Markets MT4)

In 1-hour period, the gold price went down again after stepping back on the 65 – period moving average yesterday, but it did not fall below the previous low. Looking at the overall structure, the gold price has a probability of forming a bottom structure. After the price breaks through the previous suppressed position, please make sure if the ATR combination indicator shows an effective breakthrough.

(Gold in 1- hour cycle, Ultima Markets MT4)

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price is 1902.54,

Bullish above 1902.54, the first target is 1909.10, and the second target 1917.99.

Bearish below 1902.54, the first target is 1893.94, and the second target 1887.37.

Disclaimer Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

Focus on EUR/USD.

Fundamentally speaking, although Fed’s rate hike coming to an end, the U.S. dollar index continues to rise. According to data released by the CFTC last week, the short positions fell to the lowest level in eight weeks. Short-covering is fueling a rebound in the U.S. dollar index as hedge funds continue to trim their short positions.

(US 10 -Year Treasury Yield vs EU 10 -Year Treasury Yield)

During the tightening monetary cycle, the spread of long-term bonds between the United States and Europe drives arbitrage funds to buy dollar and sell euro. In the short term, the spread deliveries adjustments to the exchange rate.

Technically speaking, the EUR/USD daily cycle completed a breakout of last Friday’s low yesterday. The market has a high probability of ushering in a downward trend in the next two days.

(EUR/USD daily cycle, Ultima Markets MT4)

The exchange rate fell below multiple moving averages and was blocked by the 61.8% golden ratio Fibonacci retracement position yesterday. Today there is a certain probability of stepping back on the moving average or consolidating prices, but if today’s market continues to fall below yesterday’s low, the euro will remain weak against the dollar.

(EUR/USD daily cycle, Ultima Markets MT4 )

From the perspective of daily structure, there are two key support positions below the level, 1.0836 is the potential target, and 1.0639 is the extremely critical long-short boundary. If all supportive levels are crushed, a deep correction will come along.

(EUR/USD in 4 -hour cycle, Ultima Markets MT4)

In 4- hour cycle, bull and bear are in entanglement. The Stochastic Oscillator displays a golden cross to indicate the bull, but the exchange rate maintains a downward trend. It means that the decline is not firm enough, and the rebound is still strong.

(EUR/USD in 1- hour cycle, Ultima Markets MT4)

In 1- hour cycle, the price still has the probability of stepping back on the moving average and resistance level. If Stochastic Oscillator shows a dead cross later on, please look for short trading opportunities.

According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price is 1.09147,

Bullish above 1.09147, the first target is 1.09537, and the second target 1.09993.

Bearish below 1.09147, the first target is 1.08680, and the second target 1.08284.

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.