The Bitcoin ETF Hype

In October, cryptocurrency prices increased significantly, especially for bitcoin. Bitcoin had its biggest monthly hike since January.

Investors were excited about the possibility that bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may soon be approved in the United States. ETF offers easy and affordable access for the average investor as compared to investing in cryptocurrency itself or existing products. 

The Bitcoin ETF Revolution

Simplifying Crypto Investments

Bitcoin ETFs, once approved, have the power to reshape the way individuals engage with cryptocurrencies. They present a user-friendly and cost-effective means for the average investor to participate in the digital asset realm.

Unlike the traditional method of direct cryptocurrency investment, which can be complex and intimidating, Bitcoin ETFs provide a structured and approachable entry point.

Mainstream Legitimacy

The impending approval of Bitcoin ETFs heralds a new era of legitimacy for cryptocurrencies. These ETFs bridge the gap between traditional financial markets and the crypto space, bringing credibility to the forefront. With the backing of mainstream financial institutions, Bitcoin’s status as a viable investment asset is reinforced.

The Ripple Effect

Broad Market Growth for Bitcoin

The surge in Bitcoin’s price triggered a ripple effect throughout the cryptocurrency market. The CoinDesk Market Index (CMI), tracking various tokens, recorded an impressive 22% growth during October. This upswing signifies a prevailing bullish sentiment, injecting confidence into the crypto landscape.

Bitcoin Market Capitalization Soars

TradingView data reveals that the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies soared by nearly 19%, reaching a substantial $1.255 trillion. This surge represents the most significant increase in crypto wealth since January, underlining the market’s resilience and growth potential.

(BTCUSD One-month Chart)

Bitcoin’s Outstanding Performance

Bitcoin’s Ascendancy

Bitcoin (BTC), the pioneer of cryptocurrencies, outperformed its peers during this remarkable rally. BTC advanced by more than 27%, achieving a 17-month high of $35,000. This surge followed a period during which it traded around $27,000 in the early weeks of October. Currently, Bitcoin maintains its position above $34,000, as investors eagerly await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

Confidence in Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s impressive performance during this surge underscores its appeal to investors worldwide. Its stability above $34,000 signals growing confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term store of value and investment asset.

Conclusion

The surge of Bitcoin in October 2023 was nothing short of phenomenal, fueled by the prospects of Bitcoin ETF approval in the United States. This surge not only transformed Bitcoin but had a cascading effect on the broader cryptocurrency market. It showcased resilience, promise, and Bitcoin’s enduring position as a prominent player in the digital asset landscape.

The cryptocurrency market is still changing as time goes on. The forthcoming introduction of Bitcoin ETFs into traditional financial markets marks a significant turning point, providing investors of all stripes with accessibility, legitimacy, and a wide range of investment options.

BOC Keeps Policy Rates Steady at 5% 

The Bank of Canada (BOC) leaves the overnight rate unchanged at 5% in its October meeting.  

The Bank continues quantitative tightening policies and expects slow growth paces to extend through 2023. However, it foresees a pickup by late 2024 and a more robust growth in 2025. In the latest projection, the BOC forecasts the Canadian economy to grow by 1.2% this year, 0.9% next year, and a more robust 2.5% in 2025. 

(Policy interest rate，BOC) 

Canada Inflation Levels Getting Under Control 

Canada’s CPI readings have been volatile in recent months: 2.8% in June, 4.0% in August, and 3.8% in September. In BOC’s latest projection, CPI is projected to average around 3.5% until the middle of next year. After that, it is expected to gradually decrease and reach 2% by 2025. However, in the near term, inflation is expected to be higher due to the impact of energy prices and the ongoing persistence of core inflation. 

Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided. 

Better-than-expected Manufacturing PMI Recorded for Germany  

In October 2023, the HCOB Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI registered a 5-month high of 40.7, surpassing the previous record of 39.6 in September and exceeding expectations of 40.  

Although manufacturing new orders showed substantial losses, it displayed signs of easing and reached its lowest level since June. At the same time, the rate at which companies were reducing their workforce was the fastest since October 2020. On the pricing front, factory gate charges continued their downward trend for the fifth consecutive month, although the rate of decline slowed compared to previous months. On the flip side, manufacturers continued to face significant drops in the costs of purchasing materials. Lastly, it’s worth noting that manufacturers still held pessimistic expectations for the future. 

(HCOB Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI，S&P Global) 

German Composite PMI Displaying Lukewarm Business Activities  

According to an initial estimate, the HCOB Germany Composite PMI fell to 45.8 in October 2023, lower than September’s 46.4 and below the market’s expected 46.7. This indicates a decline in overall economic activity. The service sector, which had shown a slight improvement the previous month, returned to contraction, while manufacturing output continued to decrease. The inflow of new business experienced the sharpest decline since May 2020, and backlogs of work decreased again. 

In addition, there was a rise in unemployment compared to September when workforce numbers had declined for the first time in nearly 3 years. In terms of prices, the rate of inflation for output charges remained relatively stable in October, following a low point in September. Finally, businesses maintained a low level of confidence in the outlook for the year ahead.  

(HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index，S&P Global) 

Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided. 

Manufacturing PMI Hit Lowest Level in Six Months 

The Judo Bank Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI experienced a decline to 48 during the month of October 2023, down from 48.7 in the preceding month, according to preliminary data. This marks the eighth consecutive monthly decline in business conditions and represents the lowest reading in 6 months, primarily attributed to decreased production and diminished new order volumes in response to weakened demand. Input expenses witnessed a notable surge, driven by mounting inflationary pressures reaching a peak not seen in 7 months. Escalating fuel expenses emerged as one of the principal factors contributing to the upward pricing pressure. Although output charges also rose, the pace of increase was comparatively slower. Given the deteriorating market conditions, business sentiment declined to its lowest level in three and a half years. Encouragingly, employment levels sustained growth, thereby extending the ongoing streak of job creation for a duration of 3 years. 

(Judo Bank Australia Manufacturing PMI，S&P Global) 

Composite PMI in Contractionary Shadow 

The Judo Bank Flash Australia Composite PMI dropped to 47.3 during October 2023, plunging from 51.5 in the preceding month, as per preliminary findings. This figure represents the lowest reading observed over a span of 21 months, driven by a substantial decline in operational performance across Australia’s private sector. The downturn in business activity stemmed from a reduction in incoming orders, an unfavorable demand climate, mounting inflationary pressures, and elevated interest rates. The volume of new export business experienced a decline for the eighth consecutive month. Input costs continued their rapid advancement, stimulated by rising inflation that reached a 3-month high. Output prices exhibited an increase as well, albeit weakened customer demand exerted pressure on pricing capabilities, resulting in the slowest pace of charge inflation since March 2021.  

(The Judo Bank Flash Australia Composite PMI，S&P Global) 

Geopolitical Turmoil Fuels Oil Price Surge

Amidst the volatile landscape of the global oil market, October 2023 stands out as a month of upheaval and uncertainty, with crude oil prices surging to a noteworthy $90 per barrel.

This escalation can be attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions, notably the intensifying conflicts between Israel and Gaza, which has far-reaching implications for the world’s energy sector.

Crude Prices Rushed to US$90 on Escalating Tensions in Middle East   

Escalating turmoil between Israel and Gaza ramped up concerns of supply disruptions among key producers in the Middle East. Additionally, U.S. military forces in Iraq were targeted in two separate drone attacks further intensifying market sentiment. Both WIT and Brent have emerged at the $90 per barrel mark, a significant technical threshold.  

(Brent Crude One-year Chart) 

(WIT Crude One-year Chart) 

Sharp Decrease in Global Oil Reserves 

According to the latest International Energy Agency (IEA) report, in August, there was a significant decline in global oil inventories, with a decrease of 63.9 million barrels (mb) observed.

This drop was primarily driven by a massive drawdown of 102.3 mb in crude oil stocks. Initial data indicates that inventories on land continued to decrease in September, but there was a rebound in oil stored on water as exports started to recover.

Inventory Trends

In the OECD countries, industry stocks experienced an unusual decline of 6.5 mb in August, reaching a total of 2,816 mb, which is substantially lower by 105.3 mb compared to the five-year average. 

Conclusion

In conclusion, the surge in crude oil prices to $90 per barrel in October 2023 can be primarily attributed to escalating geopolitical uncertainty, particularly in the Middle East.

The tensions between Israel and Gaza, coupled with drone attacks on U.S. military forces in Iraq, have heightened concerns about potential disruptions in the global oil supply chain.

As a result, the energy industry and financial markets are navigating a period of uncertainty, emphasizing the interconnectedness of geopolitics and global energy markets.

We will continue to watch these developments closely, as they have the potential to reshape the oil market landscape in the coming months.

Australia Unemployment Rate Hit New Lows in the last three months

As of September, the nation boasts a strikingly low unemployment rate of 3.6%, surpassing market expectations and marking a significant improvement from August’s 3.7% figure.

The ripple effect of this achievement is evident as 19.8 thousand people found employment, reducing the total number of unemployed individuals to 520.5 thousand. The youth unemployment rate remains stable at 8.1%.

Peeling Back the Layers: A Deeper Dive

While the reduced unemployment rate is undoubtedly a noteworthy feat, a more granular analysis unveils a complex employment landscape:

Employment Statistics

• Total employment increased by a modest 6.7 thousand, reaching 14.11 million, falling short of market expectations set at 20 thousand.
• August saw a more substantial increase of 63.3 thousand, highlighting the employment market’s volatility.
• Part-time employment surged, with 46.5 thousand individuals securing part-time positions, totaling 4.30 million. In contrast, full-time employment saw a decrease of 39.9 thousand, resulting in 9.81 million full-time workers.

Participation Rate and Underemployment

• The participation rate, calculated as the number of job seekers relative to the total adult population, witnessed a slight decrease, falling from the all-time high of 67% to 66.7%. This hints at the nuanced dynamics of employment.
• On the flip side, underemployment, reflecting the number of individuals seeking additional work, saw a modest drop from 6.5% to 6.4%. This suggests that those who are employed are aligning their work with their preferences and skill sets.

(Unemployment Rate, Australian Bureau of Statistics) 

RBA to hike rates likely again 

For last four months, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have not changed their interest rate. The RBA has been attempting to determine if those 12 rate increases were sufficient enough to control the inflation levels. 

According to the RBA, inflation will reach its 2–3% target by June 2025. On the other hand, RBA forecasts a slow upward turn in the unemployment rates to reach 4% by 2023 year-end. On Friday, November 10, the RBA will publish their latest forecasts. 

Conclusion

The employment data for September 2023 paints a compelling picture of Australia’s economic trajectory. The substantial drop in the unemployment rate, combined with the intricate details of employment types, has garnered the attention of diverse stakeholders.

As the RBA assesses the impact of its recent rate decisions on inflation, these employment statistics will undoubtedly steer future monetary policy.

In this dynamic economic landscape, staying informed and adaptable is paramount for making well-informed financial choices.

As the future unfolds, keep a vigilant eye on Australia’s employment scenario, a pivotal indicator of the nation’s economic health.

U.S. Retail Sales Thrived in September 2023

As we delve into the latest economic data for September 2023, it becomes evident that the U.S. retail and manufacturing sectors are experiencing notable developments.

This comprehensive report highlights the key statistics and trends that are shaping these critical segments of the American economy.

Consumer Spending Takes the Lead

In September, U.S. retail sales increased by a solid 0.7%, building on the previous month’s 0.8% rise. This is good news, especially given the challenges posed by high prices and borrowing costs. Consumers continued to show confidence by spending more than expected, defying economic uncertainties.

Leading Categories

Several categories saw remarkable growth:

• Miscellaneous store retailers: Up by 3%
• Non-store retailers: A solid increase of 1.1%
• Motor vehicles and parts dealers: An impressive 1% growth
• Gasoline stations: 0.9% increase

It’s important to note that these figures don’t account for inflation, making these results even more noteworthy.

(Retail Sales, United States Department of Commerce) 

Diverse Sectors Register Growth

In addition to the standout categories, other sectors also did well:

• Food services and drinking places: 0.9% rise
• Health and personal care stores: An 0.8% increase
• Food and beverage stores: 0.4% growth
• General merchandise stores: Also up by 0.4%

However, some sectors experienced declines:

• Electronics and appliances: Decreased by 0.8%
• Clothing stores: A drop of 0.8%
• Building material and garden equipment stores: A slight dip of 0.2%

Even when we exclude automobile sales, gasoline, building materials, and food services, retail sales still rose by a solid 0.6%. These results are a testament to consumer resilience in the face of economic challenges.

Strong U.S. Manufacturing Output Growth 

Manufacturing Shines

In September, production in U.S. factories increased more than expected, even though there were strikes in the automobile industry that limited the production of motor vehicles. This is additional proof that the economy finished the third quarter with strength. 

Positive Manufacturing Data

The Federal Reserve reported a 0.4% increase in manufacturing output last month. In contrast, the data for August was revised downwards, showing a 0.1% decrease in factory production, instead of the previously reported 0.1% increase. Economists surveyed by Reuters had predicted a 0.1% uptick in factory output. 

Year-on-Year Analysis

Looking at the year-on-year basis, production saw a 0.8% decline in September, with no change in the third quarter. Durable goods manufacturing output increased at an annualized rate of 2.3%, but this was offset by a 2.4% decline in nondurable manufacturing. 

(Manufacturing Production MoM, FED) 

Summary

In summary, the data for September 2023 highlights a resilient U.S. retail sector and a manufacturing industry that’s bouncing back from challenges. Consumers are spending with confidence despite rising prices, and manufacturers are adapting positively.

Staying informed and agile in these sectors is essential for businesses and investors looking to seize the opportunities presented by these trends.

The Resilient Rise of Wegovy and Ozempic

The Danish pharmaceutical company, Novo Nordisk (NVO), has recently updated its financial outlook for the year due to the increasing demand for its weight loss drug, Wegovy, and diabetes medication, Ozempic.

These drugs are administered through weekly injections and have been sought after by patients for their significant weight loss effects. 

These two medical innovations have taken the pharmaceutical world by storm, delivering remarkable results for patients who have long sought effective solutions for their health concerns.

Novo Nordisk Market Triumph

Novo Nordisk’s financial outlook for the year has seen a remarkable revision, reflecting the surging popularity of Wegovy and Ozempic.

As demand for these life-changing drugs continues to grow, the company is now anticipating a substantial boost in sales.

Novo Nordisk’s revised forecast suggests a growth in sales between 32% to 38%, up from the previous estimate of 27% to 33%.

The company also anticipates an operating profit growth of 40% to 46%, an increase from the earlier prediction of 31% to 37%.

It’s evident that Novo Nordisk’s optimistic outlook is fueled by the unanticipated success of Ozempic, particularly in the U.S. market.

Novo Nordisk’s Stock Hit YTD High 

The popularity of Wegovy and Ozempic has propelled Novo Nordisk to become Europe’s most valuable company. The company’s U.S.-listed shares (ADR) also saw a new high for the year.

This exceptional market performance is a testament to the company’s unwavering commitment to improving the health and well-being of individuals around the world.

The market is keenly awaiting Novo Nordisk’s third-quarter earnings report, scheduled for release on November 2nd, which is expected to underscore the company’s impressive growth trajectory.

Strategic US$1.3B Acquisition: Ocedurenone

In a strategic move to further expand its portfolio and contribute to improved healthcare, Novo Nordisk has made a substantial acquisition.

Novo Nordisk has decided to buy the new drug called Ocedurenone for $1.3 billion from KBP Biosciences. The drug can help people with high blood pressure that is hard to control.

This acquisition, set to be finalized by the end of 2023, is anticipated to be a game-changer in the field of cardiovascular health. Importantly, it’s worth noting that this acquisition is not expected to affect Novo Nordisk’s overall profit for the year, ensuring that the company’s financial stability remains intact.

(Novo Nordisk ADR YTD Chart) 

Novo Nordisk’s continuous commitment to pioneering medical breakthroughs, coupled with its exceptional market performance, solidifies its position as a key player in the pharmaceutical industry.

The company’s unwavering dedication to improving patients’ lives is reflected in their outstanding financial results and their strategic acquisitions, setting the stage for a promising future in healthcare.

Novo Nordisk Transformative Impact

In conclusion, Novo Nordisk’s success story is a testament to the transformative impact of Wegovy and Ozempic.

Their upwardly revised financial forecast, soaring stock performance, and strategic acquisitions are all indicators of a company that’s dedicated to making a meaningful difference in the lives of people worldwide.

As Novo Nordisk continues to innovate and meet the ever-growing healthcare needs of the population, its future prospects appear exceedingly bright.

For the latest news and updates, delve deeper into our articles.

U.S. oil production hits record high 

The U.S. Department of Energy announced on Oct. 12 that U.S. crude oil production had hit an all-time high of 13.2 million barrels per day, entirely wiping out Covid-era losses of more than 3 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Energy Index tripled after three and a half years.  

Oil demand has slowly rebounded after the 2020 downturn and lingering supply-chain shock. And rising prices for WTI crude – which careened during Covid to less than $15 a barrel, shot back to $120 in 2022, and is now near $90 – can make previously unprofitable plays work. 

(US oil production，Energy Information Administration) 

Oil companies conservative in capital spending 

U.S. oil companies cut capital spending to $106.6 billion last year from $199.7 billion in 2014, according to Statista, contributing to the decline in oil production and arguably delaying the recovery. And they put that money to work paying higher dividends and doing stock buybacks.  

According to Energy Department data, oil and gas companies paid about $75 billion per quarter last year. The department says the share of oil-company operating cash flow going to shareholders rose to half of operating cash flow from about 20% in 2019. 

(S&P Energy Sector Index) 

Higher productivity per crude well 

Offsetting the decline in capital spending is higher productivity per well — while all of the U.S. oil production is back, the closely watched Baker-Hughes rig count is barely half of 2018 levels. The average production per rig of new wells just topped 1,000 barrels a day, up from 668 four years ago, according to the Energy Department. So the industry didn’t have to add a ton of new wells or drill in as many new places to recover fully. 

Even as more cars go electric, demand from older cars and uses of oil in chemicals will keep the oil business very large. “The U.S. production will rise to 13.6 million barrels per day next year and 13.9 million in 2025. After that, forecasts get more difficult because so much can change, but by late this decade oil consumption should peak before beginning to ebb”, Rystad Energy said. 

Disclaimer  

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided. 

Why You Should Join A Live Trading Competition?

Winning prizes in every live trading competition is frequently the first thing traders will consider. Unsurprisingly, forex brokers will treat trading competitions like bonuses and give away incredible prize structures.  

For forex brokers, trading competition is one of the most successful promotional tools out there, which makes the competition unique in that it offers more than just money rewards. 

If you are considering joining a live trading competition today, this article will explain 5 benefits that you must know. 

1. Sharpening trading skills

Refining your trading skills is crucial whether you are a new trader with untested skills or seeking strategies to improve it. Enhancing your trading techniques and expertise might boost your confidence. 

In a volatile situation, for instance, confidence may suffer; therefore, improving your confidence will help you make trade decisions based on information and experience rather than emotion. 

Hence, a trading competition is the ultimate way to sharpen and test your trading skills against fellow traders worldwide.

Live competitions provide a real-world platform to hone your trading strategies, test your skills, and gain valuable experience. 

2. Experience gaining 

Reading about trading activities and methods can provide traders with a wealth of information.  

Live trading competition allows you to put your knowledge and techniques to the test, and the results might help you plan your future trading actions.  

In addition, the experience you gain will allow you to test your strategies on new currency pairs or transform theory and trading ideas into real trading opportunities. 

3. Assess strategies for risk management  

Risk management and loss mitigation are essential to trading success regardless of market conditions.  

Still, you may be wondering if your trading strategy is too conservative. Participating in a trading competition allows you to learn about the risks and benefits of methods you might not have tried otherwise.  

A live trading competition also allows you to test various risk management tactics and compare your performance to others to see how your strategies stand out. 

4. Help you learn more about yourself

Another great benefit of a live trading competition is to help you learn more about yourself. Successful people often emphasize what is in their control and focus on it. 

Trading is a multi-level experience that will help you better analyse any situation by considering risk or reward for each potential outcome of your choices.  

That is why you need to focus. A focus can provide a driving point that narrows your attention and helps you remove all distractions. 

5. Win attractive prizes 

This is what a participant in a competition is looking for, and being able to win attractive prizes for your trading skills and the profits you will make during the live trading competition.  

For example, Ultima Markets is now hosting the first-ever Live Trading Competition. It offers a chance to demonstrate your trading prowess in a real-time trading environment, compete against fellow traders, and win exciting prizes.  

Starting on 10 October 2023 and ending on 15 December 2023, ten participants who adhere to all contest rules and achieve the highest returns (based on the percentage increase in account equity) during the competition period will be declared the top winners for a US$50,000 in total prizes.  

Are you ready to participate in this most prestigious live trading competition? Click here to learn more about the Live Trading Competition. 

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Disclaimer   

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.  

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