Comprehensive USD/JPY Analysis for January 4, 2024

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the USDJPY for 4th January 2024. 

USD/JPY Analysis Key Takeaways 

• Geopolitical tensions: A series of explosions occurred in Iran, killing at least 103 people and injuring 188 others. It was one of the deadliest attacks in Iran’s history. Iran said the attack was to punish it for its stance against Israel. Geopolitical tensions have led to short-term risk aversion. 
• Policy differences drive the yen: In 2024, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and the Bank of Japan may end its negative interest rate policy. The narrowing of the interest rate difference between the two will effectively inhibit the motivation of carry traders and may promote a moderate appreciation of the yen. 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis 

USD/JPY Daily Chart Insights

• Stochastic Oscillator: Although the indicator sent a bull signal yesterday, it was not a signal in the oversold area, suggesting that bulls only have the upper hand in the short term and may not necessarily constitute a upward trend. We still need to wait for the indicator to break above the 50 mid-line to confirm the bullish trend. 
• 17-day moving average: After the exchange rate started a downward trend on November 14 last year, the blue 17-day moving average formed a moving resistance level. During the Asian trading session, the exchange rate was once again suppressed and went down. Before the blue moving average is broken, it is still not easy to judge the coming of a bullish trend. 

USD/JPY 1-hour Chart Analysis

• Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator sends a short signal in the overbought area, and then the indicator drops rapidly, implying that shorts currently have the upper hand, and it is worth looking for short opportunities for traders in the day. 
• Price Action: The USD/JPY formed a top pattern (rectangular area) yesterday, and then fell to the blue 17-period moving average. After a short-term rebound, it is worth looking for selling opportunities in the day. 

Trading Central Pivot Indicator

• According to the trading central in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 143.45, 
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 143.45, first target 143.70, second target 144.00; 
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 143.45, first target 142.80, second target 142.50. 

Conclusion