Focus on USDJPY today – 30th July 2024 

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the USDJPY for July 30 2024. 

Key Takeaways 

• BoJ interest rate decision: The Bank of Japan is set to reveal its newest interest rate decision on Wednesday. Since April 2022, core inflation has consistently met or exceeded the central bank’s target, making it likely that the Bank will implement a tighter monetary policy this week. However, if the bond purchases aren’t sufficiently decreased or if there isn’t an interest rate hike, the yen’s appreciation could be significantly hindered. 

• CFTC position data: As the Bank of Japan is about to tighten its policy, speculators have closed their short positions on yen. According to the latest CFTC data, leveraged funds cut their net short yen positions significantly in the week ending July 16, marking the largest reduction since March 2011. Asset management firms also reduced their short yen positions by the largest amount in a year.  

Technical Analysis 

Daily Chart Insights 

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator has not fully entered the oversold area and is currently oscillating, suggesting that the short-term exchange rate has ushered in an adjustment. However, the short-selling force still has the upper hand, making it difficult to shift to long positions. 

• Support price: After breaking through the M-top neckline, the USD/JPY pair shows a clear downward trend. Last week, it was halted by the green 200-day moving average and the previous long-short turning point area. This support level is strong, making it challenging for the exchange rate to break below in the short term. Even if it breaks below, there is a need to be cautious about the possibility of a false breakout. 

H1 Chart Insights 

• Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator sends a short signal before entering the overbought area, suggesting that the current battle between long and short forces remains intense. In the short term, fluctuations will continue to dominate the exchange rate, and it is necessary to wait for the exchange rate to break through the key price. 

• Fair value gap: After the exchange rate breaks through the black 65-period moving average, the downward trend was destroyed. In the short term, fluctuations will prevail until a key price level is breached. Attention should be given to the 154.738 level above, with resistance below at the lower edge of the fair value gap, at 152.736. 

Pivot Indicator 

• According to the trading central in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 153.40, 

• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 153.40, first target 154.35, second target 154.70; 

• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 153.40, first target 153.00, second target 152.70. 

Conclusion 

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Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.