U.S. Dollar Short-Squeeze Rally Pressures Non-U.S. Currencies 

Key Takeaways 

• Powell hawkish speech: At 4:00 GMT+8 on Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell participated in a discussion at the Dallas Regional Chamber of Commerce. This was Powell’s first public speech after the press conference after the meeting on November 7. Powell said that the economy did not show that the Fed needed to rush to cut interest rates. The hawkish speech led the US dollar index to continue to move out of the short squeeze. 

• US retail sales: The United States will release October retail sales data today. Previously, the US retail sales data in September surged beyond expectations, increasing the possibility of the US economy “not landing” and hitting expectations of interest rate cuts. After Trump’s victory, the rise in price levels is foreseeable. If the October data continues to show that the economy is hot, it will greatly suppress the probability of a rate cut in December, and there is a possibility of a surge in the US dollar on Friday. 

Technical Analysis 

AUDUSD Daily Chart Insights 

(AUDUSD Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

• Stochastic oscillator: The fast line of the indicator has entered the oversold area, followed by the slow line, suggesting a strong short-term bearish trend. However, before the slow line enters the oversold area, the exchange rate may still drive the indicator to rebound and fluctuate. 

• Key price: The AUD/USD was close to the key price of 0.64419 yesterday, and today, Friday, as the last day of the week, there is a probability of a rebound in the exchange rate. Pay attention to the price behavior of the exchange rate near 0.664419 during the day. 

AUDUSD 1-hour Chart Analysis 

(AUDUSD H1 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

• Stochastic oscillator: During the US trading session yesterday, the exchange rate further hit a new low, but the indicator did not enter the oversold area. It suggests that the short-term adjustment time of the AUD/USD may be insufficient. During the Asian session today, there is a probability that the exchange rate will fluctuate sideways or even reverse. 

• Resistance price: Based on the possibility of rebound during the Asian session, the exchange rate should focus on the opening price of the order block near 0.64680, which is also near the red 33-period MA. If the exchange rate rebounds above this price during the day, the Australian dollar may clearly reverse its trend today. 

AUDUSD Pivot Indicator 

(AUDUSD M30 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets APP) 

• According to the trading central in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 0.6480, 

• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 0.6480, first target 0.6500, second target 0.6520; 

• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 0.6480, first target 0.6430, second target 0.6410. 

Conclusion 

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