套息交易捲土重來，日元似將再度貶值 

今日Ultima Markets 為您帶來了 2024年 8月 16日美元兌日元的深入分析。 

基本面要點 

• 套息交易捲土重來：自8月5日以來，日元兌美元匯率已下跌超過5%，當時日本鷹派的貨幣政策舉措、對美國收益的擔憂以及疲軟的就業報告等一系列因素將日元推升至七個月高點。 

• 靜待講話影響：日本央行行長植田和男將於8月23日在國會發表講話，如果美聯儲主席鮑威爾在同一天的傑克遜霍爾會議中回擊一些交易員關於美聯儲將在9月降息50個基點的押注，那麼日元套利交易也可能會變得更加大膽。 

技術分析 

日線圖表分析 

（美元兌日元日線圖，來源Ultima Markets MT4） 

• MACD：能量柱開始走平縮減，指標在0軸下方發出多頭信號，暗示空頭力量消退，匯價或將明確多頭趨勢來臨。 

• 阻力價位：美元兌日元在公允價值缺口中震盪盤整幾天後，昨日強勢突破阻力，明確了匯價或將進一步高漲，下一目標看向150.809附近，屆時也是紅色33日均線一帶。 

1小時圖表分析 

（美元兌日元1小時圖，來源Ultima Markets MT4） 

• 隨即震盪指標：指標在超買區域發出空頭信號，暗示亞盤時段匯價將迎來下跌調整。基於日線週期是多頭趨勢，值得關注指標在脫離超買區域後出現的多頭信號。 

• 支撐價位：上行通道線成為美元兌日元關鍵的阻力價位，若繼續下跌則看向紅色33週期和黑色65週期均線附近。 

Trading Central樞紐線指標 

（美元兌日元30分鐘圖，來源Ultima Markets APP） 

• 根據Ultima Markets APP中的Trading Central樞紐線指標，當日中樞價位148.50， 

• 148.50之上看漲，第一目標149.60，第二目標150.20 

• 148.50之下看跌，第一目標148.00，第二目標147.60 

免責聲明  

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Willy

Willly is a skilled and experienced market analyst who has been analyzing financial markets for over 5 years. He currently serves as a Market Analyst at Ultima Markets, a leading financial services company. Willy brings a wealth of expertise in fundamental and technical analysis, having previously worked as Head of Financial Market Analyst at GCMAsia. There, he oversaw the research department and developed educational materials to build clients' financial knowledge. He also collaborated cross-functionally to amplify sales and achieve business goals. Prior to that role, Willy gained valuable experience as a Financial Market Analyst at the same company. He generated daily and weekly reports, conducted market briefings, and provided trading strategies through webinars. Read his latest market analyses on the Ultima Markets News & Analysis.

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